10 Temmuz 2012 Salı

9 Temmuz 2012 Pazartesi

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 483   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   300 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012      THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF              CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA          SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA          COASTAL WATERS      EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 300 PM UNTIL   1000 PM EDT.      HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.      THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF   FAYETTEVILLE NORTH CAROLINA TO 55 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF NORFOLK   VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).      REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.      DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL PLAIN OF NC AS WELL AS   SOUTHERN VA. ALONG/NEAR MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES/CONVERGENCE   ZONES ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS IS MOIST WITH LOWER 70S F   DEWPOINTS AND AT LEAST MODERATE INSTABILITY IN MOST AREAS. SCENARIO   WILL SUPPORT DOWNBURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE   HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.      AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM   MOTION VECTOR 29015.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 900 PM EDT.

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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 484
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   320 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
   
          MARYLAND
          NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA
          SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL VIRGINIA
          EXTREME SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL 900
   PM EDT.
   
   HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
   STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH
   NORTHWEST OF LYNCHBURG VIRGINIA TO 60 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
   DANVILLE VIRGINIA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 483...
   
   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER SWRN VA THIS
   AFTERNOON WITHIN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE OF
   1500-2000 J/KG.  WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 20-30 KTS WILL PROMOTE
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS AND SHORT LINE SEGMENTS...WITH POTENTIAL
   TO PRODUCE PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 27020.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID FOR THE REST OF TODAY

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Categorical Graphic
20120709 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20120709 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20120709 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20120709 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 092002      DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0302 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012      VALID 092000Z - 101200Z      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID   ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL...      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID...      20Z OUTLOOK WILL INTRODUCE A 5 PERCENT WIND PROB ACROSS CENTRAL FL   WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STG WIND   GUSTS. WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG DCAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE   PENINSULA...THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THIS PULSE-SVR ENVIRONMENT   WILL POSE A RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE   AFTERNOON AS CELLS COLLAPSE.        SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT   THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SEA   BREEZE AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS INITIATE NEW CONVECTION.   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC NORTHWARD INTO   SOUTHERN VA...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID   LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS EXISTS. A MIX OF   MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL MODES IS EXPECTED WITH AN ATTENDANT   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.      FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WEAKER VERTICAL   SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A PULSE-TYPE SVR ENVIRONMENT WITH   DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.      ACROSS INLAND PAC NW...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE   OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADJUSTED 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS   SOUTHWARD OVER ID WHERE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.      ADJUSTED GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS IA/IL   BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS.      ..BUNTING.. 07/09/2012      .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON JUL 09 2012/      ...MID ATLC REGION SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO NRN AL...   ONGOING SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE NRN AL/GA.   REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE   NERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WLY MIDLVL FLOW RELEGATED   TO AREAS FROM VA/KY NWD.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE   WEAKER END OF THE SCALE...INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER ROBUST.      VSB SATL SHOWS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH AN   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WWD INTO THE SRN   APPALACHIANS/NRN AL.  ALOFT...FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...BUT AS   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE   INCREASES...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN.  FCST   DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...OWING TO 90S SFC TEMPS AND LWR/MID 70S   DEW POINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PULSE TYPE MULTICELLS WITH WET   MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND SOME HAIL.  HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS   SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE   MID EVENING HOURS.      ...ERN WA/NRN ID...   REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK.  A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH   WAS MOVING NWD AT ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH ERN ORE LATE THIS MORNING AND   IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ERN WA/NRN ID THIS AFTN.  NUMEROUS TSTMS   ALREADY EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER   IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1000-2000   J/KG.  ENHANCED SWLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO   35-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.      ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY...   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD   AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.80-2.15 INCHES -- AND   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS   THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A   PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY   REMAIN DISORGANIZED.      NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2009Z (3:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME        

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444, AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1444
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST VA/EASTERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

VALID 092048Z - 092215Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND/SOME HAIL POTENTIAL CONTINUES
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND
PIEDMONT/COASTAL PORTIONS OF NC. SEVERE TSTM WATCH 483 CONTINUES
UNTIL 02Z.

DISCUSSION...IN GENERAL PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE
LOW...STRONG/OCCASIONALLY SEVERE TSTMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHERN/EASTERN PORTIONS OF NC LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
WITHIN A WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME /15 KT OR LESS 0-6 KM PER
WSR-88D VWPS/...MUCH OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN OUTFLOW DOMINANT
WITH CELL/OUTFLOW MERGERS LEADING TO PULSE-TYPE STRONG/OCCASIONALLY
SEVERE TSTMS CAPABLE OF DOWNBURSTS/PERIODIC HAIL ESPECIALLY WITHIN A
CORRIDOR ACROSS SOUTHERN/EASTERN NC.

FARTHER NORTH...OTHER RELATIVELY MORE SUSTAINED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO GENERALLY MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/FAR NORTHEAST NC
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS ARE OCCURRING ON THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO
BE 1500-2500 J/KG. THESE STORMS COINCIDE WITH SOMEWHAT STRONGER
VERTICAL SHEAR AS PER THE WAKEFIELD WSR-88D /AROUND 30 KT 0-6 KM/.
THIS WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS
A FEW BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AS STORMS GENERALLY PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA/FAR
NORTHEAST NC.

..GUYER.. 07/09/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE- DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON- IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
359 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
101030-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
359 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012 /459 PM EDT MON JUL 9 2012/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A
LINE FROM ROCKFORD TO AURORA TO HEBRON LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING.

THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS LATE THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT ALONG THE COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS AND LAKE AND PORTER
COUNTY INDIANA SHORES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS AN INCREASED THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COOK COUNTY ILLINOIS AND LAKE AND PORTER COUNTY
INDIANA SHORES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NECESSARY THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

8 Temmuz 2012 Pazar

Heat Safety And Your Car

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As record breaking temperatures continue across the Stateline, it's important to stay safe. One big story you hear about every year is people leaving their children or pets in cars. This is extremely dangerous because a car can heat up incredibly fast, even if it's in the shade and even if it's only "for a minute".

The National Weather Service demonstrates just how hot a car can get, even under less than "hot" conditions. With an outside temperature of 80, a car can easily heat up to around 100 in just 10 minutes.

The situation only gets worse with time. After 30 minutes, the inside temperature of a car soars to around 114.

After an hour, the inside temperature of a car is now into the 120 range. Now just imagine this kind of scenario with air temperatures starting in the triple digits. This is another reminder of how deadly the heat can be if you're not careful.

Stay cool! Stay safe!

2012 vs 2011 Precip

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We have been in a moderate drought for quite some time.  Lack of rainfall with this extreme heat means very dry conditions for all of the viewing area.  In fact, we have only received 11.04 inches of precipitation thus far, and that is lower than the 16.97 inches we received from January 1, 2011 - July 6, 2011.  In 2011, we saw 3.94 inches of rain in May, 3.44 inches of rain in June, and nothing in July.  This year, we have only received 1.62 inches of rain in May, 0.66 inches of rain in June, and we have not received anything yet for July.  For both 2011 and 2012, we saw about the same amounts of rain for January - April.  In other words, we received more than twice the amount of rain last year for May - July than what we currently have for the same time frame this year.

Justin Pletsch
WTVO Weather Intern

Drought update: Things aren't looking good

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The extreme heat in the Midwest has done nothing for the drought conditions lately.  The latest drought monitor was released Thursday morning from the National Drought Mitigation Center and continues to show northern Illinois, and now southern Wisconsin, suffering from moderate drought conditions.  No rain has fallen so far this month and with little expected this weekend I'm fearful things will turn much worse. 

Since June 1st, the area is 4.60" below where we should be for Meteorological Summer.  When looking back to the beginning of the year the area is suffering from almost a seven inch rainfall deficit!  While some relief may come this weekend with a weak cool front it doesn't appear to be enough to get us where we should be.  If we don't get a decent amount of rain within the next couple of weeks it will have a devestating effect on the crops.  Already stress in the corn crop has been experienced while soybean growth has slowed. 

One of our weather watchers, Dom Castaldo, took some photos Thursday of the dry conditions near Mt. Morris, IL.  Some of the corn crop in that area is really beginning to suffer.  He noticed that some of the corn plants are starting to 'fire'.  Meaning they are dying from the bottom up!  This really isn't good and if we don't receive rain soon crop yields will likely suffer not only in northern Illinois, but for the entire state and even the Midwest.

Storms on the radar...Finally!

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6:25pm Update:  Numerous outflow boundaries/cold pools at the surface are evident on radar this evening as thunderstorms developed south of Rockford.  There was one cell in northern Ogle county near Byron that did show some mid-level rotation with it earlier but has since collapsed fairly quickly.  Still some rain and maybe gusty winds for Rockford.  Other storms have developed south in Whiteside and Lee counties and will continue to produce heavy rain, frequent lightning as well as gusty winds. 



Finally!  Rain - for some!  The washed out cold front has passed but there are several surface boundaries across the area.  This has allowed slow moving showers/storms to develop this afternoon.  Right now looks like areas near Carroll, Ogle and DeKalb counties hold the best chance of experiencing brief, but heavy downpours.  While severe weather isn't anticipated the storms may produce a few stronger wind gusts as well as heavy rain and frequent lightning. 

Let us know if you get any rain and how much: weather@wtvo.com

The Heat Wave us Over!

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A cool front is sliding slowly southward across northern Illinois this evening ending the heat wave the lasted all last week. A few thunderstorms popped late this afternoon across parts of the Stateline. It appears as if the most generous precipitattion occurred across eastern Carroll county and parts of Ogle county. Again, the Rockford area came up short with about 0.20" on the south side to mostly just trace amounts elsewhere. The serious drought continues across the northern tier of counties across northern Illinois. The corn crop in our area is in serious jeopardy with the leaves doing the pineapple curl every afternoon.  A deficit of around 7" has built up since the 1st of June, and with corn beginning to silk out and tassel, now is a very crucial time to get some good rains to ensure the development of kernels on the ears.  However, things do not look good for any precipitation for the next 7 to 14 days. 

It will be cooler and less humid on Sunday with a high in the middle 80's.  Skies will start our partly sunny in the morning, but become mostly sfunny in the afternoon.  There will be a refreshing northeasterly breeze of 10 to 15 mph with dew points down in the 50's.  All in all.. it will be a very nice day compared to what we are used to recently.

High pressure from Canada will slide slowly southward for most of the coming week.  It will remain mostly sunny all week with no preciptiation expected.  High temperatures will be in the 80's until next weekend, and lows will be in the 60's.

7 Temmuz 2012 Cumartesi

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR JASPER IN-NEWTON IN

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

INZ010-011-071930-
JASPER IN-NEWTON IN-
205 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 201 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM NEAR RENSSELAER...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
20 MPH.

ONE HALF INCH DIAMETER HAIL...WINDS TO 50 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

CITIES AND TOWNS AFFECTED...
RENSSELAER... COLLEGEVILLE... PLEASANT RIDGE...
MCCOYSBURG... HANGING GROVE...


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL
THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 8698 4084 8698 4084 8699 4083 8709
4079 8710 4089 8727 4100 8709 4094 8692
4091 8693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1905Z 303DEG 16KT 4091 8711

$$

MDB


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429, AREAS AFFECTED...MO CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 071905Z - 072030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DOWNBURST WIND EVENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON.
RANDOM/PULSE AND GENERALLY SHORT-TERM NATURE OF THIS CONVECTION MAKE
WATCH ISSUANCE UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BREACHED ACROSS SRN AND
CNTRL MO THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT HAS ENSUED. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT THE N-S BAND OF GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS TIED TO
STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF A WWD MOVING MID/UPPER LEVEL
WAVE EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. PULSE STORMS AND OCCASIONAL STORM/OUTFLOW MERGERS ARE DRIFTING
WEST TOWARD AN AXIS WHERE STRONG SURFACE HEATING HAS BOOSTED
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 100F. THE DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY LOCALIZED AND BRIEF DOWNBURST
WIND THREAT WHEN STRONGER CELLS COLLAPSE AND/OR MERGE. GREATER STORM
ORGANIZATION AND/OR UPSCALE GROWTH CURRENTLY APPEARS UNLIKELY GIVEN
WEAK FORCING AND FLOW. FURTHERMORE...THE RANDOM/BRIEF AND ISOLATED
NATURE OF THE DOWNBURST WIND THREAT PRECLUDES A WATCH IN THIS AREA.

Massport pumped cash into failing Direct Air

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That is title of today's story in the Telegram, click here for link.   Do I have a problem with Massport trying to help Direct Air, of course not, but I do find many things troubling. 1) Massport: Interim chief David Mackey was aware of their shaky financial conditions to the extent he says in an -email "there is no question it is operating on shoe string".     If you believe this should you not


Chamber of Commerce Health Plans

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The Chamber of Commerce plans have three carriers to choose from:
  1. Harvard Pilgrim
  2. Fallon
  3. Health New England
Please note that Health New England is only appropriate for employers in Western Massachusetts.  Even with three carriers, there are a limited number of plan designs available.


Harvard-Pilgrim offers NO traditional "co-payment" plans, but only high "deductible" plans starting at $1,500 for their traditional larger network and $1,000 for the smaller "Focus" network. Similarily, Fallon has NO "co-payment" plans, and deductible plans start at 1,000 for all three of their networks: Select, Direct and the newly formed Steward.

Why join? There are discounts for these limited plans. How much? You can save 3% on the premium by going through the Chamber of Commerce versus going to the carrier direct. This discount, however, comes with a cost:
  1. Annual membership fee:
  2. Monthly administration fee: Harvard-Pilgrim charges $20 per month per subscriber. A group of two employees will be charged $40 per month or $480 for the year!!Fallon varies the monthly fee by coverage (single is $5/month, employee/child is $9/month, employee/spouse is $10/month, family is$15 per month).
  3. Wellness Program Penalty: At the end of each calendar year subscribers who are active participants will be calculated. Businesses that fall short of a 60% active participation threshold will be assessed a one time $100 charge for each covered employee short of the threshold in the calendar year.
After the Annual Membership, monthly administration fee and any wellness penalties, how much of your 3% savings is left? And that assumes you like one of these high deductible plans. In addition, it also assumes that the rates are more competitive than Blue Cross or Tufts, which the Chamber of Commerce does not offer. We do not see this being viable until the up front discount is more in thee 5-10% range.



Mammoth Lakes, California

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Cominig soon to Worcester, click here.   Votes like our City Council passed two weeks ago only confirms this will happen...  There is no doubt in my mind we are destined for bankruptcy the pension and medical unfunded liability will only grow and I think is underestiamted when we are basing our projections on an 8% return???

Worry after this last vote that our City Manager may decide to move on..   Camrbridge job would look dam good to me if I was him....    Where is our new Housing Policy anyhow??    

5 Temmuz 2012 Perşembe

Pop-up showers/storms possible later today

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Storms earlier this morning in Wisconsin have since dissipated, however, the resulting outflow boundaries (little mini-cool fronts) linger across northern Illinois and just to the south. 

With the cloud cover thinning early this afternoon temperatures will once again rise into the mid and upper 90s.  With the rising temperatures it's possible a few mid to late afternoon thunderstorms may develop as the atmosphere reaches it's convective temperature and possibly interacts with these lingering boundaries.   The convective temperature is the temperature needed to generate thunderstorm development in the absence of a front; such as a warm or cold front.  As the air at the surface heats up...it rises.  If the air it's rising into is just as warm or warmer thunderstorm development is less likely to occur.  However, if the temperature rises enough to reach it's convective temperature those popcorn type storms develop.  Right now the convective temperature is in the upper 90s.  Currently, warmer air is moving in a few thousand feet above which would cause that number to go a little higher by late this afternoon.  I'm still going to keep the isolated storm chance for this afternoon and evening 

Staying Safe In The Summer Heat

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With the forecast calling for multiple highs in the 100s this week, it's important to know when to take it easy. Heat exhaustion is common during long stretches of hot weather like this and means your body is starting to become dehydrated, but what are the signs the heat is taking a toll on you? Profuse sweating, headache and cramps, not to mention nausea and vomiting are all signs that you're starting to become dehydrated.

So what do you do if you start to show these symptoms? Fortunately, heat exhaustion is pretty easy to deal with. Get inside, especially somewhere air-conditioned, to help cool off. Plenty of fluids is another obvious way to help... just try to stay away from caffeinated and alcoholic beverages. A cool shower or bath can also help. Even if that isn't available, a damp towel can help you cool off.

It's crucial to tackle the problem of heat exhaustion before it becomes something worse, like heat stroke, which is a dangerous medical condition where the body literally starts to overheat. Just remember to take is easy and be safe this week!

Clouds have an impact on the hot temperatures

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Warm front once again has shifted north into central Wisconsin.  There have been a few mid-level clouds developing along the front this morning and it's possible those will slide south into Illinois later this morning and afternoon.  The chance for thunderstorm development remains low, however, if clouds do build afternoon highs may struggle to reach 100° and will likely remain in the 90s.

Looking at the upper level pattern the ridge of high pressure is forecast to build across northern Illinois with warmer air moving in aloft.  I think this will help some to keep the cloud cover from getting too thick across the area.  Heat index values will once again rise past 100°.  Just a few more days of the heat before a break later this weekend.

The worst has yet to come

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Uncomfortable heat continues for the next several days as Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories have been issued across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley.  Temperatures Tuesday rose to 96° thanks to cloud cover earlier in the day, but sunny skies this morning will help temperatures rise quickly.  Heat index values are already nearing 90°!

Temperatures today will rise  to 100° which is one degree shy of the record 101° set back in 1911!  Triple digit heat will continue Thursday and Friday, with Thursday likely being the hottest day out of the week.  We're forecasting high temperatures near 101° for the afternoon and if we do in fact reach that it would break the previous record of 100° set back in 1911.

Even if temperatures today fall short of 100° the heat index values area wide will rise over 100°.  Please make sure you take the necessary precautions during this prolonged period of heat.  We are now in the fifth day of 90 degree heat, but the third day of triple digit heat indices. 

One for the record books

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July 4th, 2012 will be remembered as the hottest 4th in Rockford's history.  That's because during the afternoon hours the mercury rose to 102 degrees.  This breaks the old record of 101° set all the way back in 1911!  In fact, looking at other area highs Wednesday afternoon and several locations reached 100 degree heat.  More of the same can be expected this afternoon and possibly again Friday. 

Excessive Heat Warnings continue for northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin.