THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID FOR THE REST OF TODAY

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Categorical Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.

   SPC AC 092002      DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK     NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   0302 PM CDT MON JUL 09 2012      VALID 092000Z - 101200Z      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID   ATLANTIC COAST WEST TO NORTHEAST AL...      ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WA AND ID...      20Z OUTLOOK WILL INTRODUCE A 5 PERCENT WIND PROB ACROSS CENTRAL FL   WHERE TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STG WIND   GUSTS. WITH AN AXIS OF STRONG DCAPE ACROSS THE MIDDLE   PENINSULA...THE MORE INTENSE UPDRAFTS IN THIS PULSE-SVR ENVIRONMENT   WILL POSE A RISK OF SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE   AFTERNOON AS CELLS COLLAPSE.        SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF A FRONTAL ZONE   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT   THROUGH AFTERNOON/EVENING IS EXPECTED AS FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...SEA   BREEZE AND STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS INITIATE NEW CONVECTION.   INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED OVER CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NC NORTHWARD INTO   SOUTHERN VA...WHICH IS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID   LEVEL FLOW AND WHERE 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KTS EXISTS. A MIX OF   MULTICELL/ISOLATED SUPERCELL MODES IS EXPECTED WITH AN ATTENDANT   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.      FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...WEAKER VERTICAL   SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A PULSE-TYPE SVR ENVIRONMENT WITH   DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.      ACROSS INLAND PAC NW...DESTABILIZATION IS OCCURRING DESPITE PRESENCE   OF MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS...AND STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SVR TSTMS TO   DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ADJUSTED 5 PERCENT WIND/HAIL PROBS   SOUTHWARD OVER ID WHERE ISOLATED SVR WIND GUSTS/HAIL ARE POSSIBLE.      ADJUSTED GENERAL THUNDER LINE ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND ACROSS IA/IL   BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE/LIGHTNING TRENDS.      ..BUNTING.. 07/09/2012      .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1118 AM CDT MON JUL 09 2012/      ...MID ATLC REGION SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WWD INTO NRN AL...   ONGOING SLIGHT RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WWD TO INCLUDE NRN AL/GA.   REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN FRINGE OF A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE   NERN STATES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONGEST WLY MIDLVL FLOW RELEGATED   TO AREAS FROM VA/KY NWD.  THOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ON THE   WEAKER END OF THE SCALE...INSTABILITY WILL BE RATHER ROBUST.      VSB SATL SHOWS A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY COINCIDENT WITH AN   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE VA/NC BORDER WWD INTO THE SRN   APPALACHIANS/NRN AL.  ALOFT...FEATURES WILL BE WEAK AT BEST...BUT AS   BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM AND WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE   INCREASES...WDLY SCTD TSTMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN.  FCST   DCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...OWING TO 90S SFC TEMPS AND LWR/MID 70S   DEW POINTS...WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PULSE TYPE MULTICELLS WITH WET   MICROBURST POTENTIAL AND SOME HAIL.  HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS   SHOULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS FROM LATE AFTN INTO THE   MID EVENING HOURS.      ...ERN WA/NRN ID...   REGION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK.  A MIDLVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH   WAS MOVING NWD AT ABOUT 20 KTS THROUGH ERN ORE LATE THIS MORNING AND   IS EXPECTED TO CROSS ERN WA/NRN ID THIS AFTN.  NUMEROUS TSTMS   ALREADY EXIST WITH THIS FEATURE AND STORMS WILL LIKELY GROW STRONGER   IN THE DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES 1000-2000   J/KG.  ENHANCED SWLY MIDLVL FLOW WILL BOOST DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO   35-40 KTS WHICH WILL SUPPORT STRONG MULTICELLS AND ISOLD SUPERCELLS   WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS.      ...SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY TO THE TN VALLEY...   LOW-LEVEL ASCENT NEAR THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AMIDST A BROAD   AREA OF RICH DEEP MOISTURE -- PW VALUES OF 1.80-2.15 INCHES -- AND   MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS   THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD FOSTER A   PREDOMINANTLY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR WIND GUSTS. CONVECTION SHOULD GENERALLY   REMAIN DISORGANIZED.      NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z   CURRENT UTC TIME: 2009Z (3:09PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME