WATCH POSSIBLE, AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1584 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0156 PM CDT WED JUL 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ND...NWRN MN...NERN SD CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251856Z - 252100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT. UNCERTAINTY IN TERMS OF STORM COVERAGE MAY PRECLUDE A WATCH. DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TROUGH FROM SRN MANITOBA SEWD ACROSS MN...WITH NWLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE IN A POST FRONTAL REGIME TO THE W. NEAR THE SFC TROUGH...DEWPOINTS WERE HOLDING NEAR 70 F...WHICH WAS RESULTING IN MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A LINE OF CU SHARPENING ALONG THE SECONDARY WIND SHIFT/FRONTAL SURGE FROM ERN ND INTO N CNTRL SD. GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE SFC TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE E. WITH CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION FROM HEATING...AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO FORM. LONG STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS MAY FAVOR SPLITTING CELLS. ..JEWELL/HART.. 07/25/2012 ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 45899559 45199651 44809749 44539841 44669987 45120033 46009851 47049768 48329744 49039748 49009478 47959454 47009486 46609504 45899559